Jason Smith

I'm Jason. This is my home on the web where I write. Stick around. It's going to get interesting. 

Predicting the future - why even try?

There was a really interesting post on The Verge about the history of the future of television that looked at how people imagined TV would be in the future.

What fascinates me more than imaging the future, is the fact that we as humans consistently think we will be able to do it with much accuracy.

Headlines that boldly declare the future seem to be rather popular, and there seems to be no accountability or way to keep score of people’s accuracy (other than the bank balance of a share trader).

I roll my eyes every time I read a prediction about how successful a company will be, or what their share price will be by the end of the day/year/decade. If the writer or “bold statement maker” really had some sort of authority on the future price of a share, he would be one of the richest people in the world. I rarely see the wealthy share traders/investors making such statements.

Another trick to appear as though there was some sort of level of accuracy out there in the prediction world, is to find people saying “I told you so” after any event. After any share market crash invariably the people that had been predicting gloom and doom come out and prove how right they were, and everyone says to themselves “if only I had listened”. The problem is, there are people every flippin’ day predicting the end of modern commerce as we know it. A stopped clock is right twice a day.

It seems trendy to make bold predictions about Apple shares at the moment. It was only May this year when all the headlines informed me about how Apple were destined for a bearish run for the foreseeable future. I’m glad I bought their shares anyway.

I would love to see a kind of “KLOUT” for future predictions. I doubt most people would score above 0.

How I honestly feel about social networks